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Gabe Smith Takes on the Oscars

February 23, 2019

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Gabe Smith Takes on the Oscars

https://www.flickr.com/photos/disneyabc/33013619801

https://www.flickr.com/photos/disneyabc/33013619801

https://www.flickr.com/photos/disneyabc/33013619801

Hello, everyone, and welcome back to another movie talk. This weekend is the biggest weekend for anybody who slightly enjoys movies, because this Sunday at 8:00 pm ABC will be broadcasting the annual Academy Awards. While viewership of the Oscars has dropped in the past three years, it is still the most prestigous and and most watched award show of the year. So, for this article, I will give my predictions for this year’s 90th Academy Awards. Before I do, let me offer a little bit of background. Roma leads the race with 10 nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director.  It is the front runner in both categories. Otherwise, there seems to be no clear cut favorite this year for almost any category. This will make my job a lot harder, but I’m never one to back down from a challenge. Still, don’t be surprised tonight, anything can happen. Let’s get started.

Best Picture:

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

There are a lot of great movies nominated in this category. Right now, Roma is the front runner and rightfully so. Roma is the type for film that members of the Academy typically fall in love with. It is the story of a poor Mexican family that is able to make it in life and conqueror all obstacles. In addition, Roma is a beautifully shot and well directed movie that deserves this award. Black Panther comes in as the first superhero movie to receive a nomination, but I do not expect it to win tonight. The same goes for Bohemian Rhapsody. Sorry Queen fans, but don’t count on the Academy to throw a curve ball and name it Best Picture like the Golden Globes did. The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman and A Star is Born all have a good shot at dethroning Roma. The Favourite was by far my favorite movie this year, and I personally believe it should win. BlacKkKlansman and A Star Is Born will likely go at it in the category for Best Adapted Screenplay, but don’t be shocked if either of these two movies win. Green Book and Vice will also probably fall, but Green Book could be the biggest shocker at the end of the night. The inside rumor is that Green Book has surprisingly risen to the top and might also have a good shot at beating Roma. I’m taking Roma, but watch out for

My Pick: Roma

Watch Out For: Green Book and The Favourite

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Wow! It is tough to choose in this category. There is literally no favorite in this category; each actress could easily win. If had to choose I would take Glenn Close for two reasons: she has never won an Academy award, and she won at the Golden Globes. However, Olivia Coleman performed wonderfully in The Favourite and also won at the Golden Globes as well as at BAFTAs (British Academy of Film and Television Arts). Both actresses are long overdue for a win at the Academy Awards. Don’t forget about Lady Gaga, either, and her spectacular performance in A Star Is Born. Not too long ago, she was the front runner take this award, and there really is not any reason she should not win come Sunday. That being said, Melissa McCarthy also performed very well in Can You Ever Forgive Me? The only one who is at a disadvantage is Yalitza Aparicio and that is because she has never acted before her role in Roma. I’m gonna go with Close, just because she’s never won.

My Pick: Glenn Close

Watch out for: Olivia Coleman, Lady Gaga

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Once again, this is a really tough category. The two favorites to win are Malek and Bale. Cooper’s chances have come to a crashing halt as he has not picked up a single award this year. So far Malek is the clear cut winner in this category. He has won every award up to this point, and his portrayal of the great Freddie Mercury is one of the best performances in the past couple of years. Do not count out Bale for his portrayal of Dick Cheney. He did a great job and should have a decent shot a winning, if it is not Malek.

My Pick: Rami Malek

Watch out for: Christian Bale

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina De Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

This is the most interesting category when comes to acting. Regina King is seen as the favorite, and rightfully so. She was spectacular in Beale Street, but Rachel Weisz upset King at the BAFTAs, and King did not even get nominated at the SAGs (Screen Actors Guild). Amy Adams has not won, and some are saying she could upset King and take home the award. King deserves this award. She was the best part of Beale Street and if she wins, it might make up for the Academy not nominating Beale Street for Best Picture. Also, I picked King for the Golden Globes when everyone said she would not win, so she could easily be my good luck charm. I’m going with King.

My Pick: Regina King

Watch out for: Rachel Weisz and Amy Adams

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

This is another competitive category. It is looking like it will come down to Ali and Grant, but don’t count out Elliot who finally got his first nomination in his long standing acting career. While I don’t believe Elliot deserves the award, the mere fact that he’s never won and his career is coming to an end might just be enough for the Academy to give it to him. The race should be between Ali and Grant. Both are deserving of this award, with both men playing very well in their roles. I see Grant winning this one just barely, but don’t count out Ali.

My Pick: Richard E. Grant

Watch out for: Mahershala Ali

Best Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

Cuaron is the favorite in this category. He has been the talk of the town with his brilliant directing of Roma. However, watch out for Spike Lee. He finally received the nomination he deserves, and it is possibly a much overdue nomination. We talk about overdue nominations every year (Christopher Nolan was not nominated until last year for Dunkirk). This could be the reason why Lee wins, but Cuaron deserves the award because he was clearly the best director this year.

My Pick: Alfonso Cuaron

Watch out for: Spike Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

BlacKkKlansman is the favorite in this category, but A Star is Born, Beale Street, and Can you Ever Forgive Me? are just as worthy of the win. I personally love Beale Street the most. It’s beautiful writing makes that movie stand out from all the others. However, it is important to remember that BlacKkKlansman is both a drama and a comedy and combines them both well. There were several times in the movie when I was crying laughing.  Also, there were several times when I was mesmerized by the drama and tension developed throughout the film. I am giving this pick to BlacKkKlansman

My Pick: BlacKkKlansman

Watch out for: If Beale Street could Talk, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

Vice

I love The Favourite in this category. Just like BlacKkKlansman it is both a comedy and a drama and does a terrific job with both. My good friend Malcolm Palmer, 12,  would be upset if his favorite movie First Reformed did not come away with this win. While I disliked First Reformed, it’s script is beautiful. Ethan Hawke play a controversial pastor who has trouble dealing with his faith. The audience watches as his struggles with his faith and world problems drive him deeper and deeper into a religious void where no one can save him except the girl he has been falling in love with. First Reformed has a good shot, but once again, don’t count out Green Book.  Its crowd pleasing script could win over voters in the Academy. Still, I’m taking The Favourite

My Pick: The Favourite

Watch out for: Green Book and First Reformed

Best Animated Feature Film:

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This should easily go to Spider-Man. Spider-Man has won this category at all the awards shows, and its streak should not stop now. The story of Miles Morales is a very touching and crowd pleasing story worthy of the win. Incredibles 2 has the best shot at upsetting Spider-Man, but its very unlikely.

My Pick: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Cinematography:

Cold War

The Favourite

Never Look Away

Roma

A Star Is Born

Roma has a very good shot at winning. Its black and white shots set the mood perfectly and capture the emotions accurately. However, A Star Is Born also had some great shots. The musical scenes emphasize the spotlight and emotion of Gaga and Cooper on stage perfectly. Still, I do not think it will be enough to win over Roma.

My Pick: Roma

Watch out for: A Star Is Born

Documentary:

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning

This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

Free Solo is my favorite in this category. It is a free climbing nail-biter and should be able to pull this one out. Watch out for RBG and Minding the Gap. I’ve got Free Solo.

My Pick: Free Solo

Watch out for: Minding the Gap, RBG

Best Foreign Language Film:

Capernaum

Cold War

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

This is a surprisingly competitive category. One would think Roma will take this one easily.  However, since it is the favorite for Best Picture, there have been rumors that voters will give this category to Cold War just to spread the love around. I still think Roma will take this category, but watch out for Cold War.

My Pick: Roma

Watch out for: Cold War

Original Score:

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

I absolutely love If Beale Street Could Talk’s soundtrack. It matches perfectly with the story and just gives the movie that extra emotional tone that makes Beale Street so good. Nevertheless, Black Panther could upset Beale Street. Its blend of hip hop and African hymns also contributes to the overall feel of the movie. Still, I am sticking with Beale Street.

My Pick: If Beale Street Could Talk

Watch out for: Black Panther

Original Song:

“All the Stars,” Black Panther

“I’ll Fight,” RBG

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns

“Shallow,” A Star Is Born

“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

“Shallow,” Easily.

My Pick: Shallow

Watch out for: None

Animated Shorts:

Animal Behaviour, Alison Snowden and David Fine

Bao, Domee Shi, Becky Neiman

Late Afternoon, Louise Bagnall, Nuria Gonzalez Blanco

One Small Step, Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas

Weekends, Trevor Jimenez

I’m giving this one to Bao, because it is the only one I have seen. Also, it is by Pixar, and it is the favorite to win.

My Pick: Bao

Watch out for: Weekend??

Best Documentary Short Subject:

Black Sheep

End Game

Lifeboat

A Night at the Garden

Period. End of Sentence.

A Night at the Garden appears to be the winner in this category. It is a short film about a Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden. This seems like the kind of movie that will move the voters.

My Pick: A Night at the Garden

Film Editing:

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Green Book

The Favourite

Vice

BlacKkKlansman should be able to come away with a win in this category. Still it has stiff competition with The Favourite and Bohemian Rhapsody. The musical scenes in Bohemian Rhapsody are edited perfectly. In contrast, The Favourite is edited very oddly, but it is a way that works well with the quirky script. BlacKkKlansman’s edited scene at the pro black rally is one of the best edited scenes this year and should help it win.

My Pick: BlacKkKlansman

Watch out for: Bohemian Rhapsody

Sound Editing:

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

We finally see First Man and A Quiet Place receive recognition. First Man should have the best shot at winning this category because of its scenes of astronauts talking off into space. The musical scenes in Bohemian Rhapsody can easily win as well. This one will be close, but I will take First Man.

My Pick: First Man

Watch out for: Bohemian Rhapsody

Sound Mixing:

A Star Is Born

First Man

Bohemian Rhapsody

Black Panther

Roma

Once again, this category is close. First Man has a good shot at winning with the immersive atmosphere it creates. With this nomination, the film faces both Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born. All three films deserve this award, but I see First Man just barely pulling out this one.

My Pick: First Man

Watch out for: Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born

Production Design:

Black Panther

First Man

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

This will be a battle between Black Panther and The Favourite. Both production sets are well done, but Wakanda is lot cooler than a British Castle. I see Black Panther winning this one.

My Pick:

Watch out for: The Favourite

Makeup and Hair:

Border

Mary, Queen of Scots

Vice

All three movies benefited a lot from the hair and make-up artists. These elements of the costumes played a significant role in each movie. I would give this award to Mary, Queen of Scots if only Christian Bale had not replicated Dick Cheney so well. This will probably be Vice’s only win of the night.

My Pick: Vice

Watch out for: Mary, Queen of Scots

Costume Design:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

Once again, this category should be a battle between The Favourite and Black Panther. All of the outfits in these movies are well done. Ultimately, I think Black Panther will win because of the creativity involved in developing the unique setting.

My Pick: Black Panther

Watch out for: The Favourite

Visual Effects:

Avengers: Infinity War

Christopher Robin

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

For all of the Avenger fans, do not worry. Infinity War should win this one. The famous internet meme of everyone disappearing may be one of the reasons why Infinity War will win. Still, First Man could pull off an unexpected upset.

My Pick: Avengers: Infinity War

Watch out for: First Man

Best Live Action Short Film:

Detainment

Fauve

Marguerite

Mother

Skin

I am just going to guess in this category and go with Mother.

My Pick: Mother

 

 

 

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